Planned Obsolescence

Planned Obsolescence

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Self-sufficient AI
No, we don't "have AGI already." But in any case, we should articulate clearer milestones.
 • Ajeya Cotra
OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear
OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.
 • Luca Righetti
Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should spend less time proving that today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous.
 • Luca Righetti
Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep…
 • Ajeya Cotra
Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their…
 • Ajeya Cotra
Could AI accelerate economic growth?
Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into…
 • Tom Davidson
The costs of caution
If you thought we might be able to cure cancer in 2200, then I think you ought to expect there’s a good chance we can do it within years of the advent…
 • Kelsey Piper
Planned Obsolescence
Planned Obsolescence
Thinking ahead to a future where AI decides everything
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Planned Obsolescence

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