Planned Obsolescence
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Takeoff speeds rule everything around me
Not all short timelines are created equal
Feb 12
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AI predictions for 2026
But first, scoring my predictions for 2025
Jan 14
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Ajeya Cotra
58
6
3
Self-sufficient AI
No, we don't "have AGI already." But in any case, we should articulate clearer milestones.
Jan 6
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Ajeya Cotra
50
15
8
OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear
OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.
Nov 21, 2024
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Luca Righetti
1
Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should spend less time proving that today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous.
Aug 20, 2024
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Luca Righetti
1
Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep…
Oct 10, 2023
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Ajeya Cotra
1
Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their…
Aug 29, 2023
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Ajeya Cotra
1
Could AI accelerate economic growth?
Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into…
Jun 6, 2023
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Tom Davidson
1
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