Planned Obsolescence

The Hugging Face attack surprised me

It’s a major warning shot, and might be the last one we get

Aug 28 • Ajeya Cotra

1,004

164

184

Hurtling through 2026

Scoring ten qualitative forecasts five months early

Aug 14 • Ajeya Cotra

54

4

5

July 2026

Total research transparency would be nice

We could learn what's scary and stop doing that

Jul 10 • Ajeya Cotra

43

5

2

June 2026

Could a company overpower nations?

The leading AI company could gain unprecedented power

Jun 5 • Ajeya Cotra

63

14

5

May 2026

Science and speculation

Will we agree about AI risks in time?

May 1 • Ajeya Cotra

66

9

9

April 2026

Six milestones for AI automation

What can AI do on its own, and how well?

Apr 3 • Ajeya Cotra

96

47

13

March 2026

I underestimated AI capabilities (again)

Revisiting a prediction ten months early

Mar 5 • Ajeya Cotra

111

32

9

February 2026

Takeoff speeds rule everything around me

Not all short timelines are created equal

Feb 12

93

11

10

January 2026

AI predictions for 2026

But first, scoring my predictions for 2025

Jan 14 • Ajeya Cotra

68

6

4

Self-sufficient AI

No, we don't "have AGI already." But in any case, we should articulate clearer milestones.

Jan 6 • Ajeya Cotra

67

15

11

November 2024

OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear

OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.

Nov 21, 2024 • Luca Righetti

1

August 2024

Dangerous capability tests should be harder

We should spend less time proving that today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous.

Aug 20, 2024 • Luca Righetti

2

1