Planned Obsolescence
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I underestimated AI capabilities (again)
Revisiting a prediction ten months early
Mar 5
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Ajeya Cotra
99
28
9
February 2026
Takeoff speeds rule everything around me
Not all short timelines are created equal
Feb 12
63
9
9
January 2026
AI predictions for 2026
But first, scoring my predictions for 2025
Jan 14
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Ajeya Cotra
64
6
4
Self-sufficient AI
No, we don't "have AGI already." But in any case, we should articulate clearer milestones.
Jan 6
•
Ajeya Cotra
53
15
8
November 2024
OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear
OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.
Nov 21, 2024
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Luca Righetti
1
August 2024
Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should spend less time proving that today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous.
Aug 20, 2024
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Luca Righetti
1
October 2023
Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep…
Oct 10, 2023
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Ajeya Cotra
1
August 2023
Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their…
Aug 29, 2023
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Ajeya Cotra
1
June 2023
Could AI accelerate economic growth?
Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into…
Jun 6, 2023
•
Tom Davidson
1
May 2023
The costs of caution
If you thought we might be able to cure cancer in 2200, then I think you ought to expect there’s a good chance we can do it within years of the advent…
May 1, 2023
•
Kelsey Piper
3
April 2023
Continuous doesn’t mean slow
Once a lab trains AI that can fully replace its human employees, it will be able to multiply its workforce 100,000x. If these AIs do AI research, they…
Apr 12, 2023
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Tom Davidson
1
AIs accelerating AI research
Researchers could potentially design the next generation of ML models more quickly by delegating some work to existing models, creating a feedback loop…
Apr 4, 2023
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Ajeya Cotra
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